Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 2.300340 2.443455 2.595031 2.768234 2.961562 3.171761 3.419016
2025-05-04 2.120013 2.320611 2.544295 2.814843 3.136881 3.512823 3.992450
2025-05-11 1.971263 2.199481 2.462604 2.793253 3.204968 3.711339 4.399355
2025-05-18 1.860952 2.107007 2.398121 2.775231 3.262452 3.888830 4.788832
2025-05-25 1.767338 2.024526 2.335221 2.747893 3.297933 4.032866 5.143662
2025-06-01 1.688378 1.953163 2.278737 2.720610 3.325969 4.163542 5.491057
2025-06-08 1.631889 1.905365 2.247312 2.721175 3.388135 4.344015 5.936179
2025-06-15 1.593236 1.877167 2.238114 2.748852 3.487839 4.586792 6.518992
2025-06-22 1.531742 1.815946 2.181381 2.706057 3.480238 4.662827 6.828340
2025-06-29 1.473919 1.756702 2.123893 2.657806 3.459336 4.713506 7.097832
2025-07-06 1.416869 1.696038 2.061459 2.598383 3.416138 4.722080 7.287155
2025-07-13 1.396479 1.683115 2.063127 2.630932 3.516228 4.978671 8.015974
2025-07-20 1.380718 1.676264 2.073464 2.677819 3.644743 5.304242 8.985308
2025-07-27 1.364614 1.668135 2.081367 2.721203 3.771135 5.643815 10.097109
2025-08-03 1.330079 1.633122 2.049174 2.700776 3.788120 5.778858 10.751933
2025-08-10 1.298846 1.601517 2.020407 2.683733 3.808961 5.923332 11.480569
2025-08-17 1.267007 1.567948 1.987340 2.657874 3.811879 6.031418 12.146471
2025-08-24 1.237048 1.536052 1.955446 2.632057 3.812577 6.134612 12.839295
2025-08-31 1.216067 1.516193 1.940482 2.632591 3.860799 6.345890 13.975967
2025-09-07 1.203111 1.507297 1.941347 2.658781 3.958324 6.681340 15.737417
2025-09-14 1.173392 1.473369 1.903275 2.618282 3.926114 6.713256 16.364187
2025-09-21 1.143708 1.438763 1.863138 2.572592 3.880891 6.709193 16.851807
2025-09-28 1.112584 1.401372 1.817750 2.516283 3.811656 6.639814 17.035695